Skip to Content

The Half-Life of Metrics

seekingsignal.substack.com

The answer is to read our decayed metrics and distorted sentiment together and commit to acting on the divergence. The divergence, itself, is the most important information you have. If a measure no longer tracks with mood in the way it used to, then we ought to assume the forces of decay have rendered it worthless for this purpose. We can modify existing measures or establish new measures, consciously aware that they will decay, and being willing to retire them when they do. It won’t produce the kind of stable reporting that gives the illusion that institutional life is manageable, with longitudinal comparisons going back decades